组合模型的港集装箱吞吐量预测分析(附件)【字数：7495】
1ABSTRACT 2第1章 绪论 31.1研究背景及意义 31.2研究内容及现状 41.2.1论文内容 41.2.2研究的现状 5第2章 港口吞吐量的影响因素和预测步骤 62.1港口吞吐量的影响因素研究 62.2港口吞吐量预测步骤 62.2.1主要研究方法 62.2.2主要研究步骤 7第3章 预测模型的介绍 83.1三次指数平滑法 83.1.1数据来源 83.1.2计算结果 93.2回归分析预测法 103.2.1计算结果 10第4章 组合预测 114.1组合预测权重的确定 114.2预测结果分析 12第5章 总结 145.1主要研究工作 145.2对策与建议 145.3研究展望 15参考文献 15致谢 16自20世纪九十年代以来，集装箱运输愈来愈成为国际运输的主要方式。港口地位确定，和集装箱吞吐量有着密切的联系或者说是由集装箱吞吐量来确定的。所以，对集装箱吞吐量的数据进行分析成为了港口规划过程中十分关键的环节。近年来随着浙江港集装箱吞吐量快速增长，为浙江的经济发展带来了重要的影响，所以如何很好的预测浙江港集装箱吞吐能力，就成为了一个重要的难题。本文从分析浙江港口集装箱吞吐量未来状况出发，对港口吞吐量的影响因素进行了分析。根据以往的集装箱吞吐量的历史数据，采用两个或两个以上的单一模型进行加权处理得到一个组合模型，然后通过该模型对未来的集装箱吞吐量进行预测。以浙江港口为例，收集了2010-2018年的数据采用三次指数平滑法和一元线性回归分析法进行分析，对两个模型加权得到新的组合模型，并将新的组合模型与三次指数平滑法、一元线性回归分析法进行比较，得到组合模型的精准度较高，利用新的组合模型对2020-2030年的集装箱吞吐量进行预测；最后对本文进行总结与展望。本文的主要成果包括（1）对数据的预测结果进行分析得到，组合预测模型的预测结果比单一模型的预测结果的精确度高。（2）对2020-2030年的集装箱吞吐量进行了预测得到相应的结果。通过了对浙江港的集装箱吞吐量进行预测分析，本文建立的组合模型有一定的可行性。
目 录
ABSTRACT
Since the 1990s, container transportation has increasingly become the main mode of international *好棒文|www.hbsrm.com +Q: ^351916072#
transportation. Port status determination, and container throughput has a close relationship or container throughput to determine. Therefore, the analysis of container throughput data has become a very important part in the port planning process. In recent years, with the rapid growth of container throughput in zhejiang port, it has brought important influence to the economic development of zhejiang province. Therefore, how to predict the container handling capacity of zhejiang port well has become an important problem.
Based on the analysis of the future situation of container throughput in zhejiang port, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of port throughput. Based on the historical data of previous container throughput, two or more single models were weighted to obtain a combined model, and then the future container throughput was predicted by the model. Zhejiang port, for example, to collect the data from 20102018 three exponential smoothing method and monadic linear regression analysis method to carry on the analysis, the two model of the weighted new portfolio model, three times and the new composite model and exponential smoothing method and monadic linear regression analysis comparison, get higher precision of combination model, using a new combination model to forecast the container throughput of 20202030. In the end, this paper is summarized and prospected.
The main results of this paper include :(1) the prediction results of the combined prediction model are more accurate than those of the single model. (2) the container throughput from 2020 to 2030 is predicted and the corresponding results are obtained.
Through the analysis of the container throughput of zhejiang port, the combined model established in this paper has certain feasibility.
【KEY WORD】:Container throughput, Unitary linear regression analysis, Cubic exponential smoothing, Combined forecasting, Zhejiang port
第1章 绪论
1.1研究背景及意义
近年来，随着市场经济的发展和对外贸易的增加，中国集装箱运输正处于一种高速增长的状态，每年港口集装箱吞吐量都以一定的速度递增，见图1。集装箱的利用和发展不仅提高了货运质量，还减少了运输的环节和运输的时间，从而降低了货运成本强而有力地提高了经济和贸易的发展。
/
图1.20142018年全国港口集装箱吞吐量
在我国“一带一路”战略倡导背景下，我国对外经济更为开放活跃也为沿海港口生产经营带来了新的增长点。在2018年，浙江海港集团，宁波舟山港集团贯彻执行关于推展长三角更高质量一体化发展重要命令，推动浙江港进一步对接融入“一带一路”、长江经济带、浙江自贸易去等建设，使得港口运输再更上一层楼。浙江港集装箱吞吐量的持续增长，与我国对外贸易的持续发展和转型升级有着密不可分的关系。同时，促进与2M、OCEAN、THE等航运联盟的合作，使得国际枢纽港地位更进一步稳固。累计2018年末，宁波舟山港已具有各类航线246条，较2017年同期增加3条，其中干线120条，占总航线比例近50%。
目 录
ABSTRACT
Since the 1990s, container transportation has increasingly become the main mode of international *好棒文|www.hbsrm.com +Q: ^351916072#
transportation. Port status determination, and container throughput has a close relationship or container throughput to determine. Therefore, the analysis of container throughput data has become a very important part in the port planning process. In recent years, with the rapid growth of container throughput in zhejiang port, it has brought important influence to the economic development of zhejiang province. Therefore, how to predict the container handling capacity of zhejiang port well has become an important problem.
Based on the analysis of the future situation of container throughput in zhejiang port, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of port throughput. Based on the historical data of previous container throughput, two or more single models were weighted to obtain a combined model, and then the future container throughput was predicted by the model. Zhejiang port, for example, to collect the data from 20102018 three exponential smoothing method and monadic linear regression analysis method to carry on the analysis, the two model of the weighted new portfolio model, three times and the new composite model and exponential smoothing method and monadic linear regression analysis comparison, get higher precision of combination model, using a new combination model to forecast the container throughput of 20202030. In the end, this paper is summarized and prospected.
The main results of this paper include :(1) the prediction results of the combined prediction model are more accurate than those of the single model. (2) the container throughput from 2020 to 2030 is predicted and the corresponding results are obtained.
Through the analysis of the container throughput of zhejiang port, the combined model established in this paper has certain feasibility.
【KEY WORD】:Container throughput, Unitary linear regression analysis, Cubic exponential smoothing, Combined forecasting, Zhejiang port
第1章 绪论
1.1研究背景及意义
近年来，随着市场经济的发展和对外贸易的增加，中国集装箱运输正处于一种高速增长的状态，每年港口集装箱吞吐量都以一定的速度递增，见图1。集装箱的利用和发展不仅提高了货运质量，还减少了运输的环节和运输的时间，从而降低了货运成本强而有力地提高了经济和贸易的发展。
/
图1.20142018年全国港口集装箱吞吐量
在我国“一带一路”战略倡导背景下，我国对外经济更为开放活跃也为沿海港口生产经营带来了新的增长点。在2018年，浙江海港集团，宁波舟山港集团贯彻执行关于推展长三角更高质量一体化发展重要命令，推动浙江港进一步对接融入“一带一路”、长江经济带、浙江自贸易去等建设，使得港口运输再更上一层楼。浙江港集装箱吞吐量的持续增长，与我国对外贸易的持续发展和转型升级有着密不可分的关系。同时，促进与2M、OCEAN、THE等航运联盟的合作，使得国际枢纽港地位更进一步稳固。累计2018年末，宁波舟山港已具有各类航线246条，较2017年同期增加3条，其中干线120条，占总航线比例近50%。
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