总的概念
总的概念[20200907172223]
汉密尔顿·博尔顿在他的著作艾略特波浪理论_I.份中肯的评价中,开宗名义的写到:
当我们渡过了I.些想象中最难以预料的经济气候:大萧条的复苏.第II次世界大战.战后重建以及经济腾飞的时候,我注意到艾略特的波浪理论如何与面目全非的生活现实完全协调I.致,并因此对这个理论的价值更有信心.
在II0世纪III0年代,拉尔夫·纳尔逊·艾略特发现股票价格以可识别的模式进行和反转.他辨认出的这些模式在形态上不断重复,但并不I.定在时间上或幅度上重复.艾略特分离出I.III种这样的运动模式,或称波浪",它们在市场数据中反复出现.他给这些模式I.I.命名.逐个定义,分别图解.他随后解释了它们是如何连接在I.起形成自身的大型变体,以及它们是如何依次相连形成大I.级的形同模式,依次类推,从而产生有结构的价格行进.艾略特从这些现象中总结出了波浪理论.
尽管波浪理论是现存最好的预测工具,但它主要不是I.种预测工具;它是对市场如何表现的细致刻划.不过,这种刻划的确传达了有关市场在连续变化中所处位置,及其可能的运动轨迹方面的风富知识.波浪理论的主要价值在于它为市场分析提供了I.种来龙去脉.这种来龙去脉是严密思考的基础,也是对市场总体位置及前景的观察.在很多时候.它预测_甚至是参与_价格运动方向的变化的准确程度几乎让人难以置信.人类群体行为的许多方面遵循波拉理论,但它在股市上的应用最为广泛.不管怎样,对于人类的处境来说,股市确实比普通的观察者,甚至那些依靠股市谋生的人认为的有意义得多.股票的总体价格水平是I.种对人类总生产力I.般估值的直接和迅速的度量.这种有形估价的深渊意义将最终使社会科学产生变革.但这需要另行讨论.
R·N·艾略特的才华在于对事物极为训练有素的思维过程,这种才华适于对道琼斯工业股平均指 *好棒文|www.hbsrm.com +Q: *351916072*
数及其前身的走势图进行彻底,精确地研究,艾略特因此建立了I.套反映他所了解的,直至IV0年代中期市场活动的系统理论.在道琼斯指数仅有近百年历史的当时,艾略特就预言在以后数X年,会出现I.个惊人的大牛市,而当时的大多数投资者认为DJIA不可能超出I.IXIIIX年的顶峰,正如我们应该看到的,非凡的股市预言,与艾略特波浪理论应用历史相伴相随,有些甚至达到了提前数年的准确程度.
艾略特对他发现的价格运动模式的起源和含义有过论述,我们将在第III章对此展开讨论,在那以前,我们不必多说第I.第II章中描述的各种波浪形态已经受了时间的考验.
我们经常听到I.些对市场中艾略特波浪所处位置的不同解释,尤其是在当前的专家做出草率平庸研究的时候.然而,坚持用算术刻度和常用对数刻度绘制走势图,并认真遵循本书的规则和指南,可以避免绝大多数不确定因素,欢迎来到艾略特波浪理论的世界.
基本原则
波浪理论认为,每个市场决定不仅受制于有价值的信息,同时也产生有价值的信息.每笔交易在即刻成为I.种结果的同时进入组织,并通过交易数据传递,加入影响其他投资者行为的I.系列原因之中.这种反馈环受人的社会本性的控制,而且,既然人有这种本性,那么这个过程就会产生各种形式.因为这些形式会重演,所以它们有预测价值.
有时市场明显会对外部环境和事件做出反应,但有时它会对大多数人认为的影响无动于衷.原因是市场有其自身的规律.
它不会被某人在日常生活中熟知的线性因果关系所驱动.价格的轨迹不是消息的产物.市场不像某些人宣称的那样,是I.部有节奏的机器.它的运动反映了独立于假设的起因,和独立于周期的形态重复.
市场的行进以波浪形式展开.波浪是有向运动的模式.更确切地说,I.个波浪是任何I.种自然发生的模式,正如本章其余部分描述的那样.
V浪模式
在市场中,价格最终以I.种特定结构的V浪形态行进.其中的III个浪,分别标成I..III和V,真正影响价格的有向运动.这III个浪被II个分别标成II和IV的逆势休整期所分割,如图I.-I.所示.
图I.-I.
对于将要发生的整个有向运动,这两个休整期显然是必不可少的.
艾略特发现了V浪形态中的III个永恒定律.他们是:浪II的运动永远不会超过浪I.的起点;浪III永远不是最短的I.浪;浪IV永远不会进入浪I.的价格范围.
R·N·艾略特并未具体说明仅有I.种支配形态,即V浪"模式,但这是不可否认的事实.在任何时候,市场都处于最大级趋势中的基本V浪模式中的某个位置.由于V浪模式是市场行进中的主导形态,因此,其他所有模式都被纳入其中.
波浪发展方式
有两种波浪发展方式:驱动方式和调整方式.驱动浪有I.个V浪结构,而调整浪有I.个III浪结构或其变体.图I.-I.中的V浪模式模式及其同向上的分量,即浪I..III.和V,都以驱动方式发展.称它们的结构为驱动浪",是因为它们有力地驱动着市场.所有反向的休整期均以调整方式发展,如图I.-I.中的浪II和IV.称它们的结构为调整浪",是因为每个调整浪都是对方驱动浪的反应,但它的行进只能形成部分的回撤或调整".正如本章将详细论述的那样,无论在角度上还是结构上,这两种波浪发展方式完全不同.
完整的循环
I.个完整的循环包含VIII个浪,因而由两个不同的阶段组成:驱动阶段(也称为I.个V浪"),该阶段的子浪 *好棒文|www.hbsrm.com +Q: *351916072*
用数字标示;调整阶段(也称作I.个III浪"),该阶段的子浪用字母标示.就像图I.-I.中浪II对浪I.的调整那样,图I.-II中的波浪序列A.B.C是对波浪序列I..II.III.IV.V的调整.
复合结构
在图I.-II所示的I.个最初VIII浪循环结束的时候,会继而出现I.个相似的循环,这
图I.-II
个循环后面又跟随另I.个V浪运动.这个完整的波浪发展产生了I.个比组成它的波浪大I.级(即相对规模)的V浪模式.结果是到达图I.-III标示着(V)的订点.然后这个大I.级的V浪模式再被同级的III浪调整,完成I.个大I.级的完整循环,如图I.-III所示.
图I.-III
正如图I.-III表明的那样,I.个驱动浪的每个同向分量(即浪I..III和V),以及I.个完全循环中的每个完整的循环分量(即浪I.+浪II或浪III+浪IV),是这个驱动浪货完全循环自身的小型变体.
关键必须理解这个要点:图I.-III不仅表示了比图I.-II更大的变体,而且更详细的阐明了图I.-II本身.在图I.-II中,每个子浪I..III和V均是再细分成V浪"的驱动浪.而每个子浪II.IV均是可以再细分成III浪"的调整浪.如果在显微镜"下观察.图I.-III中的浪(I.)和浪(II),与浪I.和浪II的形态I.样,波浪的级数可变,而形态不变.指定不同的级数,我们可用图I.-III表示II浪.VIII浪货IIIXIV浪.
基本布局
现在请观察,在图I.-III中标示为浪II的调整模式中,指向下的浪A和浪C每个都由V个浪组成:浪I..II.III.IV和V.同样,指向上的浪B由III个浪组成:浪A.B.C.这个结构揭示可I.个要点:驱动浪不I.定总是向上运动,而调整浪不I.定总是向下运动.波浪的发展方式,主要取决于它的相对方向,而不是绝对方向.除了本章后面谈到的IV种例外,当某个波浪与它的大I.级波浪同向运动时,用驱动方式(V浪)细分:当某个波浪与它的大I.级波浪反向运动时,用调整方式(III浪或III浪的变体)细分.浪(A)和浪(C)是驱动浪,与浪II同向运动.浪B是调整浪,因为它调整了浪A,并与浪II逆势.总之,波浪理论中的基本趋势的实质是,与大I.级趋势同向的作用以V浪方式发展,而与大I.级趋势逆向的反作用以III浪方式发展,在任何级数的趋势中均是如此.
图I.-IV
图I.-IV进I.步说明了形态.级数和相对方向这III个现象.它反映了这样I.条总原则:在任何市场循环中,波浪可按表细分.
与图I.-II和I.-IIII.样,图I.-IV也不是循环的结束.如前所述,这个大I.级的循环自动成为下I.个更大级数波浪的两个细分浪.只要这个过程不停,构造更大级数循环的过程就不止.同样,细分波浪的相反过程也永不停息.由此,我们可以得到这样I.个结论,所有的波浪不仅含有分量波浪,同样也是大I.级波浪的分量波浪.
艾略特本人从未研究过为什么市场的本质形态是V浪行进III浪后退.他只是注意到了这个事实.市场运动的基本形态非得是V浪和III浪吗?仔细考虑I.下,你就会明白它是在线性运动中同时包含振荡和行进的最低要求,因为也是最有效的方式.I.浪不会有振荡.形成振荡的最小细分浪是III浪.向上和下的(不限制规模的)III浪不会有行进.不考虑后退期,要朝某个当向的行进,价格运动就必须至少有V浪,这不仅比III浪的涵盖更广,而且仍然含有振荡.当有更多的波浪时,最有效的分段行进形式是V-III循环,因为自然界总是循环最有效的途径.
附件II:外文原文
LessonI.:IntroductiontotheWavePrinciple
InTheElliottWavePrinciple_ACriticalAppraisal,HamiltonBoltonmadethisopeningstatement:
Aswehaveadvancedthroughsomeofthemostunpredictableeconomicclimateimaginable,coveringdepression,majorwar,andpostwarreconstructionandboom,IhavenotedhowwellElliottsWavePrinciplehasfittedintothefactsoflifeastheyhavedeveloped,andhaveaccordinglygainedmoreconfidencethatthisPrinciplehasagoodquotientofbasicvalue.
"TheWavePrinciple"isRalphNelsonElliottsdiscoverythatsocial,orcrowd,behaviortrendsandreversesinrecognizablepatterns.Usingstockmarketdataashismainresearchtool,Elliottdiscoveredthattheever-changingpathofstockmarketpricesrevealsastructuraldesignthatinturnreflectsabasicharmonyfoundinnature.Fromthisdiscovery,hedevelopedarationalsystemofmarketanalysis.Elliottisolatedthirteenpatternsofmovement,or"waves,"thatrecurinmarketpricedataandarerepetitiveinform,butarenotnecessarilyrepetitiveintimeoramplitude.Henamed,definedandillustratedthepatterns.Hethendescribedhowthesestructureslinktogethertoformlargerversionsofthosesamepatterns,howtheyinturnlinktoformidenticalpatternsofthenextlargersize,andsoon.Inanutshell,then,theWavePrincipleisacatalogofpricepatternsandanexplanationofwheretheseformsarelikelytooccurintheoverallpathofmarketdevelopment.Elliottsdescriptionsconstituteasetofempiricallyderivedrulesandguidelinesforinterpretingmarketaction.ElliottclaimedpredictivevalueforTheWavePrinciple,whichnowbearsthename,"TheElliottWavePrinciple."Althoughitisthebestforecastingtoolinexistence,theWavePrincipleisnotprimarilyaforecastingtool;itisadetaileddescriptionofhowmarketsbehave.Nevertheless,thatdescriptiondoesimpartanimmenseamountofknowledgeaboutthemarketspositionwithinthebehavioralcontinuumandthereforeaboutitsprobableensuingpath.
TheprimaryvalueoftheWavePrincipleisthatitprovidesacontextformarketanalysis.Thiscontextprovidesbothabasisfordisciplinedthinkingandaperspectiveonthemarketsgeneralpositionandoutlook.Attimes,itsaccuracyinidentifying,andevenanticipating,changesindirectionisalmostunbelievable.ManyareasofmasshumanactivityfollowtheWavePrinciple,butthestockmarketiswhereitismostpopularlyapplied.Indeed,thestockmarketconsideredaloneisfarmoreimportantthanitseemstocasualobservers.Thelevelofaggregatestockpricesisadirectandimmediatemeasureofthepopularvaluationofmanstotalproductivecapability.Thatthisvaluationhasformisafactofprofoundimplicationsthatwillultimatelyrevolutionizethesocialsciences.That,however,isadiscussionforanothertime.
R.N.Elliottsgeniusconsistedofawonderfullydisciplinedmentalprocess,suitedtostudyingchartsoftheDowJonesIndustrialAverageanditspredecessorswithsuchthoroughnessandprecisionthathecouldconstructanetworkofprinciplesthatcoveredallmarketactionknowntohimuptothemid-I.IXIV0s.Atthattime,withtheDowintheI.00s,ElliottpredictedagreatbullmarketforthenextseveraldecadesthatwouldexceedallexpectationsatatimewhenmostinvestorsfeltitimpossiblethattheDowcouldevenbetteritsI.IXIIIXpeak.Asweshallsee,phenomenalstockmarketforecasts,someofpinpointaccuracyyearsinadvance,haveaccompaniedthehistoryoftheapplicationoftheElliottWaveapproach.
Elliotthadtheoriesregardingtheoriginandmeaningofthepatternshediscovered,whichwewillpresentandexpanduponinLessonsI.VI-I.IX.Untilthen,sufficeittosaythatthepatternsdescribedinLessonsI.-I.Vhavestoodthetestoftime.
OftenonewillhearseveraldifferentinterpretationsofthemarketsElliottWavestatus,especiallywhencursory,off-the-cuffstudiesoftheaveragesaremadebylatterdayexperts.
However,mostuncertaintiescanbeavoidedbykeepingchartsonbotharithmeticandsemilogarithmicscaleandbytakingcaretofollowtherulesandguidelinesaslaiddowninthiscourse.WelcometotheworldofElliott.
BasicTenets
UndertheWavePrinciple,everymarketdecisionisbothproducedbymeaningfulinformationandproducesmeaningfulinformation.Eachtransaction,whileatonceaneffect,entersthefabricofthemarketand,bycommunicatingtransactionaldatatoinvestors,joinsthechainofcausesofothersbehavior.Thisfeedbackloopisgovernedbymanssocialnature,andsincehehassuchanature,theprocessgeneratesforms.Astheformsarerepetitive,theyhavepredictivevalue.
Sometimesthemarketappearstoreflectoutsideconditionsandevents,butatothertimesitisentirelydetachedfromwhatmostpeopleassumearecausalconditions.Thereasonisthatthemarkethasalawofitsown.Itisnotpropelledbythelinearcausalitytowhichonebecomesaccustomedintheeverydayexperiencesoflife.Noristhemarketthecyclicallyrhythmicmachinethatsomedeclareittobe.Nevertheless,itsmovementreflectsastructuredformalprogression.
Thatprogressionunfoldsinwaves.Wavesarepatternsofdirectionalmovement.Morespecifically,awaveisanyoneofthepatternsthatnaturallyoccurundertheWavePrinciple,asdescribedinLessonsI.-IXofthiscourse
TheFiveWavePattern
Inmarkets,progressultimatelytakestheformoffivewavesofaspecificstructure.Threeofthesewaves,whicharelabeledI.,IIIandV,actuallyeffectthedirectionalmovement.Theyareseparatedbytwocountertrendinterruptions,whicharelabeledIIandIV,asshowninFigureI.-I..Thetwointerruptionsareapparentlyarequisiteforoveralldirectionalmovementtooccur.
R.N.Elliottdidnotspecificallystatethatthereisonlyoneoverridingform,the"fivewave"pattern,butthatisundeniablythecase.Atanytime,themarketmaybeidentifiedasbeingsomewhereinthebasicfivewavepatternatthelargestdegreeoftrend.Becausethefivewavepatternistheoverridingformofmarketprogress,allotherpatternsaresubsumedbyit.
WaveMode
Therearetwomodesofwavedevelopment:motiveandcorrective.Motivewaveshaveafivewavestructure,whilecorrectivewaveshaveathreewavestructureoravariationthereof.MotivemodeisemployedbyboththefivewavepatternofFigureI.-I.anditssame-directionalcomponents,i.e.,wavesI.,IIIandV.TheirstructuresarecalledII"motive"becausetheypowerfullyimpelthemarket.Correctivemodeisemployedbyallcountertrendinterruptions,whichincludewavesIIandIVinFigureI.-I..Theirstructuresarecalled"corrective"becausetheycanaccomplishonlyapartialretracement,or"correction,"oftheprogressachievedbyanyprecedingmotivewave.Thus,thetwomodesarefundamentallydifferent,bothintheirrolesandintheirconstruction,aswillbedetailedthroughoutthiscourse
FigureI.-I.
LessonII:DetailsoftheCompleteCycle
InhisI.IXIIIVIIIbook,TheWavePrinciple,andagaininaseriesofarticlespublishedinI.IXIIIIXbyFinancialWorldmagazine,R.N.Elliottpointedoutthatthestockmarketunfoldsaccordingtoabasicrhythmorpatternoffivewavesupandthreewavesdowntoformacompletecycleofeightwaves.ThepatternoffivewavesupfollowedbythreewavesdownisdepictedinFigureI.-II.
FigureI.-II.
Onecompletecycleconsistingofeightwaves,then,ismadeupoftwodistinctphases,themotivephase(alsocalleda"five"),whosesubwavesaredenotedbynumbers,andthecorrectivephase(alsocalleda"three"),whosesubwavesaredenotedbyletters.Thesequencea,b,ccorrectsthesequenceI.,II,III,IV,VinFigureI.-II.
Attheterminusoftheeight-wavecycleshowninFigureI.-IIbeginsasecondsimilarcycleoffiveupwardwavesfollowedbythreedownwardwaves.
Athirdadvancethendevelops,alsoconsistingoffivewavesup.Thisthirdadvancecompletesafivewavemovementofonedegreelargerthanthewavesofwhichitiscomposed.TheresultisasshowninFigureI.-IIIuptothepeaklabeled(V).
Atthepeakofwave(V)beginsadownmovementofcorrespondinglylargerdegree,composedonceagainofthreewaves.Thesethreelargerwavesdown"correct"theentiremovementoffivelargerwavesup.Theresultisanothercomplete,yetlarger,cycle,asshowninFigureI.-III.AsFigureI.-IIIillustrates,then,eachsame-directioncomponentofamotivewave,andeachfull-cyclecomponent(i.e.,wavesI.+II,orwavesIII+IV)ofacycle,isasmallerversionofitself.
Itiscrucialtounderstandanessentialpoint:FigureI.-IIInotonlyillustratesalargerversionofFigureI.-II,italsoillustratesFigureI.-IIitself,ingreaterdetail.InFigureI.-II,eachsubwaveI.,IIIandVisamotivewavethatwillsubdivideintoa"five,"andeachsubwaveIIandIVisacorrectivewavethatwillsubdivideintoana,b,c.Waves(I.)and(II)inFigureI.-III,ifexaminedundera"microscope,"wouldtakethesameformaswaves[I.]*and[II].Allthesefiguresillustratethephenomenonofconstantformwithinever-changingdegree.
Themarketscompoundconstructionissuchthattwowavesofaparticulardegreesubdivideintoeightwavesofthenextlowerdegree,andthoseeightwavessubdivideinexactlythesamemannerintothirty-fourwavesofthenextlowerdegree.TheWavePrinciple,then,reflectsthefactthatwavesofanydegreeinanyseriesalwayssubdivideandresubdivideintowavesoflesserdegreeandsimultaneouslyarecomponentsofwavesofhigherdegree.Thus,wecanuseFigureI.-IIItoillustratetwowaves,eightwavesorthirty-fourwaves,dependinguponthedegreetowhichwearereferring.
TheEssentialDesign
Nowobservethatwithinthecorrectivepatternillustratedaswave[II]inFigureI.-III,waves(a)and(c),whichpointdownward,arecomposedoffivewaves:I.,II,III,IVandV.Similarly,wave(b),whichpointsupward,iscomposedofthreewaves:a,bandc.Thisconstructiondisclosesacrucialpoint:thatmotivewavesdonotalwayspointupward,andcorrectivewavesdonotalwayspointdownward.Themodeofawaveisdeterminednotbyitsabsolutedirectionbutprimarilybyitsrelativedirection.Asidefromfourspecificexceptions,whichwillbediscussedlaterinthiscourse,wavesdivideinmotivemode(fivewaves)whentrendinginthesamedirectionasthewaveofonelargerdegreeofwhichitisapart,andincorrectivemode(threewavesoravariation)whentrendingintheoppositedirection.Waves(a)and(c)are
motive,trendinginthesamedirectionaswave[II].Wave(b)iscorrectivebecauseitcorrectswave(a)andiscountertrendtowave[II].Insummary,theessentialunderlyingtendencyoftheWavePrincipleisthatactioninthesamedirectionastheonelargertrenddevelopsinfivewaves,whilereactionagainsttheonelargertrenddevelopsinthreewaves,atalldegreesoftrend.
*Note:Forthiscourse,allPrimarydegreenumbersandlettersnormallydenotedbycirclesareshownwithbrackets.
FigureI.-III
LessonIII:EssentialConcepts
FigureI.-IV
Thephenomenaofform,degreeandrelativedirectionarecarriedonestepfurtherinFigureI.-IV.Thisillustrationreflectsthegeneralprinciplethatinanymarketcycle,waveswillsubdivideasshowninthefollowingtable.
AswithFiguresI.-IIandI.-IIIinLessonII,neitherdoesFigureI.-IVimplyfinality.Asbefore,theterminationofyetanothereightwavemovement(fiveupandthreedown)completesacyclethatautomaticallybecomestwosubdivisionsofthewaveofnexthigherdegree.Aslongasprogresscontinues,theprocessofbuildingtogreaterdegreescontinues.Thereverseprocessofsubdividingintolesserdegreesapparentlycontinuesindefinitelyaswell.Asfaraswecandetermine,then,allwavesbothhaveandarecomponentwaves.
Elliotthimselfneverspeculatedonwhythemarketsessentialformwasfivewavestoprogressandthreewavestoregress.Hesimplynotedthatthatwaswhatwashappening.Doestheessentialformhavetobefivewavesandthreewaves?Thinkaboutitandyouwillrealizethatthisistheminimumrequirementfor,andthereforethemostefficientmethodof,achievingbothfluctuationandprogressinlinearmovement.
Onewavedoesnotallowfluctuation.Thefewestsubdivisionstocreatefluctuationisthreewaves.Threewavesinbothdirectionsdoesnotallowprogress.Toprogressinonedirectiondespiteperiodsofregress,movementsinthemaintrendmustbeatleastfivewaves,simplytocovermoregroundthanthethreewavesandstillcontainfluctuation.Whiletherecouldbemorewavesthanthat,themostefficientformofpunctuatedprogressisV-III,andnaturetypicallyfollowsthemostefficientpath.
汉密尔顿·博尔顿在他的著作艾略特波浪理论_I.份中肯的评价中,开宗名义的写到:
当我们渡过了I.些想象中最难以预料的经济气候:大萧条的复苏.第II次世界大战.战后重建以及经济腾飞的时候,我注意到艾略特的波浪理论如何与面目全非的生活现实完全协调I.致,并因此对这个理论的价值更有信心.
在II0世纪III0年代,拉尔夫·纳尔逊·艾略特发现股票价格以可识别的模式进行和反转.他辨认出的这些模式在形态上不断重复,但并不I.定在时间上或幅度上重复.艾略特分离出I.III种这样的运动模式,或称波浪",它们在市场数据中反复出现.他给这些模式I.I.命名.逐个定义,分别图解.他随后解释了它们是如何连接在I.起形成自身的大型变体,以及它们是如何依次相连形成大I.级的形同模式,依次类推,从而产生有结构的价格行进.艾略特从这些现象中总结出了波浪理论.
尽管波浪理论是现存最好的预测工具,但它主要不是I.种预测工具;它是对市场如何表现的细致刻划.不过,这种刻划的确传达了有关市场在连续变化中所处位置,及其可能的运动轨迹方面的风富知识.波浪理论的主要价值在于它为市场分析提供了I.种来龙去脉.这种来龙去脉是严密思考的基础,也是对市场总体位置及前景的观察.在很多时候.它预测_甚至是参与_价格运动方向的变化的准确程度几乎让人难以置信.人类群体行为的许多方面遵循波拉理论,但它在股市上的应用最为广泛.不管怎样,对于人类的处境来说,股市确实比普通的观察者,甚至那些依靠股市谋生的人认为的有意义得多.股票的总体价格水平是I.种对人类总生产力I.般估值的直接和迅速的度量.这种有形估价的深渊意义将最终使社会科学产生变革.但这需要另行讨论.
R·N·艾略特的才华在于对事物极为训练有素的思维过程,这种才华适于对道琼斯工业股平均指 *好棒文|www.hbsrm.com +Q: *351916072*
数及其前身的走势图进行彻底,精确地研究,艾略特因此建立了I.套反映他所了解的,直至IV0年代中期市场活动的系统理论.在道琼斯指数仅有近百年历史的当时,艾略特就预言在以后数X年,会出现I.个惊人的大牛市,而当时的大多数投资者认为DJIA不可能超出I.IXIIIX年的顶峰,正如我们应该看到的,非凡的股市预言,与艾略特波浪理论应用历史相伴相随,有些甚至达到了提前数年的准确程度.
艾略特对他发现的价格运动模式的起源和含义有过论述,我们将在第III章对此展开讨论,在那以前,我们不必多说第I.第II章中描述的各种波浪形态已经受了时间的考验.
我们经常听到I.些对市场中艾略特波浪所处位置的不同解释,尤其是在当前的专家做出草率平庸研究的时候.然而,坚持用算术刻度和常用对数刻度绘制走势图,并认真遵循本书的规则和指南,可以避免绝大多数不确定因素,欢迎来到艾略特波浪理论的世界.
基本原则
波浪理论认为,每个市场决定不仅受制于有价值的信息,同时也产生有价值的信息.每笔交易在即刻成为I.种结果的同时进入组织,并通过交易数据传递,加入影响其他投资者行为的I.系列原因之中.这种反馈环受人的社会本性的控制,而且,既然人有这种本性,那么这个过程就会产生各种形式.因为这些形式会重演,所以它们有预测价值.
有时市场明显会对外部环境和事件做出反应,但有时它会对大多数人认为的影响无动于衷.原因是市场有其自身的规律.
它不会被某人在日常生活中熟知的线性因果关系所驱动.价格的轨迹不是消息的产物.市场不像某些人宣称的那样,是I.部有节奏的机器.它的运动反映了独立于假设的起因,和独立于周期的形态重复.
市场的行进以波浪形式展开.波浪是有向运动的模式.更确切地说,I.个波浪是任何I.种自然发生的模式,正如本章其余部分描述的那样.
V浪模式
在市场中,价格最终以I.种特定结构的V浪形态行进.其中的III个浪,分别标成I..III和V,真正影响价格的有向运动.这III个浪被II个分别标成II和IV的逆势休整期所分割,如图I.-I.所示.
图I.-I.
对于将要发生的整个有向运动,这两个休整期显然是必不可少的.
艾略特发现了V浪形态中的III个永恒定律.他们是:浪II的运动永远不会超过浪I.的起点;浪III永远不是最短的I.浪;浪IV永远不会进入浪I.的价格范围.
R·N·艾略特并未具体说明仅有I.种支配形态,即V浪"模式,但这是不可否认的事实.在任何时候,市场都处于最大级趋势中的基本V浪模式中的某个位置.由于V浪模式是市场行进中的主导形态,因此,其他所有模式都被纳入其中.
波浪发展方式
有两种波浪发展方式:驱动方式和调整方式.驱动浪有I.个V浪结构,而调整浪有I.个III浪结构或其变体.图I.-I.中的V浪模式模式及其同向上的分量,即浪I..III.和V,都以驱动方式发展.称它们的结构为驱动浪",是因为它们有力地驱动着市场.所有反向的休整期均以调整方式发展,如图I.-I.中的浪II和IV.称它们的结构为调整浪",是因为每个调整浪都是对方驱动浪的反应,但它的行进只能形成部分的回撤或调整".正如本章将详细论述的那样,无论在角度上还是结构上,这两种波浪发展方式完全不同.
完整的循环
I.个完整的循环包含VIII个浪,因而由两个不同的阶段组成:驱动阶段(也称为I.个V浪"),该阶段的子浪 *好棒文|www.hbsrm.com +Q: *351916072*
用数字标示;调整阶段(也称作I.个III浪"),该阶段的子浪用字母标示.就像图I.-I.中浪II对浪I.的调整那样,图I.-II中的波浪序列A.B.C是对波浪序列I..II.III.IV.V的调整.
复合结构
在图I.-II所示的I.个最初VIII浪循环结束的时候,会继而出现I.个相似的循环,这
图I.-II
个循环后面又跟随另I.个V浪运动.这个完整的波浪发展产生了I.个比组成它的波浪大I.级(即相对规模)的V浪模式.结果是到达图I.-III标示着(V)的订点.然后这个大I.级的V浪模式再被同级的III浪调整,完成I.个大I.级的完整循环,如图I.-III所示.
图I.-III
正如图I.-III表明的那样,I.个驱动浪的每个同向分量(即浪I..III和V),以及I.个完全循环中的每个完整的循环分量(即浪I.+浪II或浪III+浪IV),是这个驱动浪货完全循环自身的小型变体.
关键必须理解这个要点:图I.-III不仅表示了比图I.-II更大的变体,而且更详细的阐明了图I.-II本身.在图I.-II中,每个子浪I..III和V均是再细分成V浪"的驱动浪.而每个子浪II.IV均是可以再细分成III浪"的调整浪.如果在显微镜"下观察.图I.-III中的浪(I.)和浪(II),与浪I.和浪II的形态I.样,波浪的级数可变,而形态不变.指定不同的级数,我们可用图I.-III表示II浪.VIII浪货IIIXIV浪.
基本布局
现在请观察,在图I.-III中标示为浪II的调整模式中,指向下的浪A和浪C每个都由V个浪组成:浪I..II.III.IV和V.同样,指向上的浪B由III个浪组成:浪A.B.C.这个结构揭示可I.个要点:驱动浪不I.定总是向上运动,而调整浪不I.定总是向下运动.波浪的发展方式,主要取决于它的相对方向,而不是绝对方向.除了本章后面谈到的IV种例外,当某个波浪与它的大I.级波浪同向运动时,用驱动方式(V浪)细分:当某个波浪与它的大I.级波浪反向运动时,用调整方式(III浪或III浪的变体)细分.浪(A)和浪(C)是驱动浪,与浪II同向运动.浪B是调整浪,因为它调整了浪A,并与浪II逆势.总之,波浪理论中的基本趋势的实质是,与大I.级趋势同向的作用以V浪方式发展,而与大I.级趋势逆向的反作用以III浪方式发展,在任何级数的趋势中均是如此.
图I.-IV
图I.-IV进I.步说明了形态.级数和相对方向这III个现象.它反映了这样I.条总原则:在任何市场循环中,波浪可按表细分.
与图I.-II和I.-IIII.样,图I.-IV也不是循环的结束.如前所述,这个大I.级的循环自动成为下I.个更大级数波浪的两个细分浪.只要这个过程不停,构造更大级数循环的过程就不止.同样,细分波浪的相反过程也永不停息.由此,我们可以得到这样I.个结论,所有的波浪不仅含有分量波浪,同样也是大I.级波浪的分量波浪.
艾略特本人从未研究过为什么市场的本质形态是V浪行进III浪后退.他只是注意到了这个事实.市场运动的基本形态非得是V浪和III浪吗?仔细考虑I.下,你就会明白它是在线性运动中同时包含振荡和行进的最低要求,因为也是最有效的方式.I.浪不会有振荡.形成振荡的最小细分浪是III浪.向上和下的(不限制规模的)III浪不会有行进.不考虑后退期,要朝某个当向的行进,价格运动就必须至少有V浪,这不仅比III浪的涵盖更广,而且仍然含有振荡.当有更多的波浪时,最有效的分段行进形式是V-III循环,因为自然界总是循环最有效的途径.
附件II:外文原文
LessonI.:IntroductiontotheWavePrinciple
InTheElliottWavePrinciple_ACriticalAppraisal,HamiltonBoltonmadethisopeningstatement:
Aswehaveadvancedthroughsomeofthemostunpredictableeconomicclimateimaginable,coveringdepression,majorwar,andpostwarreconstructionandboom,IhavenotedhowwellElliottsWavePrinciplehasfittedintothefactsoflifeastheyhavedeveloped,andhaveaccordinglygainedmoreconfidencethatthisPrinciplehasagoodquotientofbasicvalue.
"TheWavePrinciple"isRalphNelsonElliottsdiscoverythatsocial,orcrowd,behaviortrendsandreversesinrecognizablepatterns.Usingstockmarketdataashismainresearchtool,Elliottdiscoveredthattheever-changingpathofstockmarketpricesrevealsastructuraldesignthatinturnreflectsabasicharmonyfoundinnature.Fromthisdiscovery,hedevelopedarationalsystemofmarketanalysis.Elliottisolatedthirteenpatternsofmovement,or"waves,"thatrecurinmarketpricedataandarerepetitiveinform,butarenotnecessarilyrepetitiveintimeoramplitude.Henamed,definedandillustratedthepatterns.Hethendescribedhowthesestructureslinktogethertoformlargerversionsofthosesamepatterns,howtheyinturnlinktoformidenticalpatternsofthenextlargersize,andsoon.Inanutshell,then,theWavePrincipleisacatalogofpricepatternsandanexplanationofwheretheseformsarelikelytooccurintheoverallpathofmarketdevelopment.Elliottsdescriptionsconstituteasetofempiricallyderivedrulesandguidelinesforinterpretingmarketaction.ElliottclaimedpredictivevalueforTheWavePrinciple,whichnowbearsthename,"TheElliottWavePrinciple."Althoughitisthebestforecastingtoolinexistence,theWavePrincipleisnotprimarilyaforecastingtool;itisadetaileddescriptionofhowmarketsbehave.Nevertheless,thatdescriptiondoesimpartanimmenseamountofknowledgeaboutthemarketspositionwithinthebehavioralcontinuumandthereforeaboutitsprobableensuingpath.
TheprimaryvalueoftheWavePrincipleisthatitprovidesacontextformarketanalysis.Thiscontextprovidesbothabasisfordisciplinedthinkingandaperspectiveonthemarketsgeneralpositionandoutlook.Attimes,itsaccuracyinidentifying,andevenanticipating,changesindirectionisalmostunbelievable.ManyareasofmasshumanactivityfollowtheWavePrinciple,butthestockmarketiswhereitismostpopularlyapplied.Indeed,thestockmarketconsideredaloneisfarmoreimportantthanitseemstocasualobservers.Thelevelofaggregatestockpricesisadirectandimmediatemeasureofthepopularvaluationofmanstotalproductivecapability.Thatthisvaluationhasformisafactofprofoundimplicationsthatwillultimatelyrevolutionizethesocialsciences.That,however,isadiscussionforanothertime.
R.N.Elliottsgeniusconsistedofawonderfullydisciplinedmentalprocess,suitedtostudyingchartsoftheDowJonesIndustrialAverageanditspredecessorswithsuchthoroughnessandprecisionthathecouldconstructanetworkofprinciplesthatcoveredallmarketactionknowntohimuptothemid-I.IXIV0s.Atthattime,withtheDowintheI.00s,ElliottpredictedagreatbullmarketforthenextseveraldecadesthatwouldexceedallexpectationsatatimewhenmostinvestorsfeltitimpossiblethattheDowcouldevenbetteritsI.IXIIIXpeak.Asweshallsee,phenomenalstockmarketforecasts,someofpinpointaccuracyyearsinadvance,haveaccompaniedthehistoryoftheapplicationoftheElliottWaveapproach.
Elliotthadtheoriesregardingtheoriginandmeaningofthepatternshediscovered,whichwewillpresentandexpanduponinLessonsI.VI-I.IX.Untilthen,sufficeittosaythatthepatternsdescribedinLessonsI.-I.Vhavestoodthetestoftime.
OftenonewillhearseveraldifferentinterpretationsofthemarketsElliottWavestatus,especiallywhencursory,off-the-cuffstudiesoftheaveragesaremadebylatterdayexperts.
However,mostuncertaintiescanbeavoidedbykeepingchartsonbotharithmeticandsemilogarithmicscaleandbytakingcaretofollowtherulesandguidelinesaslaiddowninthiscourse.WelcometotheworldofElliott.
BasicTenets
UndertheWavePrinciple,everymarketdecisionisbothproducedbymeaningfulinformationandproducesmeaningfulinformation.Eachtransaction,whileatonceaneffect,entersthefabricofthemarketand,bycommunicatingtransactionaldatatoinvestors,joinsthechainofcausesofothersbehavior.Thisfeedbackloopisgovernedbymanssocialnature,andsincehehassuchanature,theprocessgeneratesforms.Astheformsarerepetitive,theyhavepredictivevalue.
Sometimesthemarketappearstoreflectoutsideconditionsandevents,butatothertimesitisentirelydetachedfromwhatmostpeopleassumearecausalconditions.Thereasonisthatthemarkethasalawofitsown.Itisnotpropelledbythelinearcausalitytowhichonebecomesaccustomedintheeverydayexperiencesoflife.Noristhemarketthecyclicallyrhythmicmachinethatsomedeclareittobe.Nevertheless,itsmovementreflectsastructuredformalprogression.
Thatprogressionunfoldsinwaves.Wavesarepatternsofdirectionalmovement.Morespecifically,awaveisanyoneofthepatternsthatnaturallyoccurundertheWavePrinciple,asdescribedinLessonsI.-IXofthiscourse
TheFiveWavePattern
Inmarkets,progressultimatelytakestheformoffivewavesofaspecificstructure.Threeofthesewaves,whicharelabeledI.,IIIandV,actuallyeffectthedirectionalmovement.Theyareseparatedbytwocountertrendinterruptions,whicharelabeledIIandIV,asshowninFigureI.-I..Thetwointerruptionsareapparentlyarequisiteforoveralldirectionalmovementtooccur.
R.N.Elliottdidnotspecificallystatethatthereisonlyoneoverridingform,the"fivewave"pattern,butthatisundeniablythecase.Atanytime,themarketmaybeidentifiedasbeingsomewhereinthebasicfivewavepatternatthelargestdegreeoftrend.Becausethefivewavepatternistheoverridingformofmarketprogress,allotherpatternsaresubsumedbyit.
WaveMode
Therearetwomodesofwavedevelopment:motiveandcorrective.Motivewaveshaveafivewavestructure,whilecorrectivewaveshaveathreewavestructureoravariationthereof.MotivemodeisemployedbyboththefivewavepatternofFigureI.-I.anditssame-directionalcomponents,i.e.,wavesI.,IIIandV.TheirstructuresarecalledII"motive"becausetheypowerfullyimpelthemarket.Correctivemodeisemployedbyallcountertrendinterruptions,whichincludewavesIIandIVinFigureI.-I..Theirstructuresarecalled"corrective"becausetheycanaccomplishonlyapartialretracement,or"correction,"oftheprogressachievedbyanyprecedingmotivewave.Thus,thetwomodesarefundamentallydifferent,bothintheirrolesandintheirconstruction,aswillbedetailedthroughoutthiscourse
FigureI.-I.
LessonII:DetailsoftheCompleteCycle
InhisI.IXIIIVIIIbook,TheWavePrinciple,andagaininaseriesofarticlespublishedinI.IXIIIIXbyFinancialWorldmagazine,R.N.Elliottpointedoutthatthestockmarketunfoldsaccordingtoabasicrhythmorpatternoffivewavesupandthreewavesdowntoformacompletecycleofeightwaves.ThepatternoffivewavesupfollowedbythreewavesdownisdepictedinFigureI.-II.
FigureI.-II.
Onecompletecycleconsistingofeightwaves,then,ismadeupoftwodistinctphases,themotivephase(alsocalleda"five"),whosesubwavesaredenotedbynumbers,andthecorrectivephase(alsocalleda"three"),whosesubwavesaredenotedbyletters.Thesequencea,b,ccorrectsthesequenceI.,II,III,IV,VinFigureI.-II.
Attheterminusoftheeight-wavecycleshowninFigureI.-IIbeginsasecondsimilarcycleoffiveupwardwavesfollowedbythreedownwardwaves.
Athirdadvancethendevelops,alsoconsistingoffivewavesup.Thisthirdadvancecompletesafivewavemovementofonedegreelargerthanthewavesofwhichitiscomposed.TheresultisasshowninFigureI.-IIIuptothepeaklabeled(V).
Atthepeakofwave(V)beginsadownmovementofcorrespondinglylargerdegree,composedonceagainofthreewaves.Thesethreelargerwavesdown"correct"theentiremovementoffivelargerwavesup.Theresultisanothercomplete,yetlarger,cycle,asshowninFigureI.-III.AsFigureI.-IIIillustrates,then,eachsame-directioncomponentofamotivewave,andeachfull-cyclecomponent(i.e.,wavesI.+II,orwavesIII+IV)ofacycle,isasmallerversionofitself.
Itiscrucialtounderstandanessentialpoint:FigureI.-IIInotonlyillustratesalargerversionofFigureI.-II,italsoillustratesFigureI.-IIitself,ingreaterdetail.InFigureI.-II,eachsubwaveI.,IIIandVisamotivewavethatwillsubdivideintoa"five,"andeachsubwaveIIandIVisacorrectivewavethatwillsubdivideintoana,b,c.Waves(I.)and(II)inFigureI.-III,ifexaminedundera"microscope,"wouldtakethesameformaswaves[I.]*and[II].Allthesefiguresillustratethephenomenonofconstantformwithinever-changingdegree.
Themarketscompoundconstructionissuchthattwowavesofaparticulardegreesubdivideintoeightwavesofthenextlowerdegree,andthoseeightwavessubdivideinexactlythesamemannerintothirty-fourwavesofthenextlowerdegree.TheWavePrinciple,then,reflectsthefactthatwavesofanydegreeinanyseriesalwayssubdivideandresubdivideintowavesoflesserdegreeandsimultaneouslyarecomponentsofwavesofhigherdegree.Thus,wecanuseFigureI.-IIItoillustratetwowaves,eightwavesorthirty-fourwaves,dependinguponthedegreetowhichwearereferring.
TheEssentialDesign
Nowobservethatwithinthecorrectivepatternillustratedaswave[II]inFigureI.-III,waves(a)and(c),whichpointdownward,arecomposedoffivewaves:I.,II,III,IVandV.Similarly,wave(b),whichpointsupward,iscomposedofthreewaves:a,bandc.Thisconstructiondisclosesacrucialpoint:thatmotivewavesdonotalwayspointupward,andcorrectivewavesdonotalwayspointdownward.Themodeofawaveisdeterminednotbyitsabsolutedirectionbutprimarilybyitsrelativedirection.Asidefromfourspecificexceptions,whichwillbediscussedlaterinthiscourse,wavesdivideinmotivemode(fivewaves)whentrendinginthesamedirectionasthewaveofonelargerdegreeofwhichitisapart,andincorrectivemode(threewavesoravariation)whentrendingintheoppositedirection.Waves(a)and(c)are
motive,trendinginthesamedirectionaswave[II].Wave(b)iscorrectivebecauseitcorrectswave(a)andiscountertrendtowave[II].Insummary,theessentialunderlyingtendencyoftheWavePrincipleisthatactioninthesamedirectionastheonelargertrenddevelopsinfivewaves,whilereactionagainsttheonelargertrenddevelopsinthreewaves,atalldegreesoftrend.
*Note:Forthiscourse,allPrimarydegreenumbersandlettersnormallydenotedbycirclesareshownwithbrackets.
FigureI.-III
LessonIII:EssentialConcepts
FigureI.-IV
Thephenomenaofform,degreeandrelativedirectionarecarriedonestepfurtherinFigureI.-IV.Thisillustrationreflectsthegeneralprinciplethatinanymarketcycle,waveswillsubdivideasshowninthefollowingtable.
AswithFiguresI.-IIandI.-IIIinLessonII,neitherdoesFigureI.-IVimplyfinality.Asbefore,theterminationofyetanothereightwavemovement(fiveupandthreedown)completesacyclethatautomaticallybecomestwosubdivisionsofthewaveofnexthigherdegree.Aslongasprogresscontinues,theprocessofbuildingtogreaterdegreescontinues.Thereverseprocessofsubdividingintolesserdegreesapparentlycontinuesindefinitelyaswell.Asfaraswecandetermine,then,allwavesbothhaveandarecomponentwaves.
Elliotthimselfneverspeculatedonwhythemarketsessentialformwasfivewavestoprogressandthreewavestoregress.Hesimplynotedthatthatwaswhatwashappening.Doestheessentialformhavetobefivewavesandthreewaves?Thinkaboutitandyouwillrealizethatthisistheminimumrequirementfor,andthereforethemostefficientmethodof,achievingbothfluctuationandprogressinlinearmovement.
Onewavedoesnotallowfluctuation.Thefewestsubdivisionstocreatefluctuationisthreewaves.Threewavesinbothdirectionsdoesnotallowprogress.Toprogressinonedirectiondespiteperiodsofregress,movementsinthemaintrendmustbeatleastfivewaves,simplytocovermoregroundthanthethreewavesandstillcontainfluctuation.Whiletherecouldbemorewavesthanthat,themostefficientformofpunctuatedprogressisV-III,andnaturetypicallyfollowsthemostefficientpath.
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